IDI: 640,000 first-time Israelis may decide 12 Knesset seats

The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will be eligible to vote on Tuesday, October 27. These first-time voters constitute nearly 10% of the electorate. Their choices could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the IDI's education policy program, stated that first-time voters will make a difference if turnout remains high. She cited research indicating that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters surveyed in May said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents expressed intent to vote. For comparison, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election was 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain to vote and another 19% thought they would. Hoffman noted that national security and the cost of living ranked as top issues for both Jewish and Arab youth. She attributed this focus to their experiences during the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7.

Political leanings among this demographic are mixed. An N12 poll from September 23 found 74% of young people describing their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that survey, 16% supported Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% backed Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman observed that military service often prompts voters to question war goals, potentially shifting their views.

High school mock elections provided another data point. Most students supported Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support existed for Likud, but little for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party. Hoffman added that Jewish Israeli voters of all ages have generally moved rightward over the past couple of decades.

Individual voters expressed a range of priorities. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to back either the Democrats or Yashar. She is part of the opposition "change bloc" seeking to remove Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been in office since 2009 with a brief break in 2021 and 2022. She stated she is voting "so we can change the future of this country."

Omer Gross of Jerusalem, an army-prep student in the Golan, intends to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He supports Smotrich's West Bank policies despite disagreeing with his Gaza approach. Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herzeliya, will vote for the change bloc and wants the next government to mandate ultra-Orthodox military service and lower living costs.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist who requested anonymity, cited economic grounds as his primary reason for voting for the Democrats. He pointed to the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party to close resource gaps and tackle crime. He urged friends to vote, stating, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."